Tuesday, August 20, 2019
Normal Approximation in R-code Normal approximation using R-code Abstract The purpose of this research is to determine when it is more desirable to approximate a discrete distribution with a normal distribution. Particularly, it is more convenient to replace the binomial distribution with the normal when certain conditions are met. Remember, though, that the binomial distribution is discrete, while the normal distribution is continuous. The aim of this study is also to have an overview on how normal distribution can also be concerned and applicable in the approximation of Poisson distribution. The common reason for these phenomenon depends on the notion of a sampling distribution. I also provide an overview on how Binomial probabilities can be easily calculated by using a very straightforward formula to find the binomial coefficient. Unfortunately, due to the factorials in the formula, it can easily lead into computational difficulties with the binomial formula. The solution is that normal approximation allows us to bypass any of these problems. Introduction The shape of the binomial distribution changes considerably according to its parameters, n and p. If the parameter p, the probability of Ã¢â¬Å"successÃ¢â¬ (or a defective item or a failure) in a single experimental, is sufficiently small (or if q = 1 Ã¢â¬â p is adequately small), the distribution is usually asymmetrical. Alternatively, if p is sufficiently close enough to 0.5 and n is sufficiently large, the binomial distribution can be approximated using the normal distribution. Under these conditions the binomial distribution is approximately symmetrical and inclines toward a bell shape. A binomial distribution with very small p (or p very close to 1) can be approximated by a normal distribution if n is very large. If n is large enough, sometimes both the normal approximation and the Poisson approximation are applicable. In that case, use of the normal approximation is generally preferable since it allows easy calculation of cumulative probabilities using tables or other tec hnology. When dealing with extremely large samples, it becomes very tedious to calculate certain probabilities. In such circumstances, using the normal distribution to approximate the exact probabilities of success is more applicable or otherwise it would have been achieved through laborious computations. For n sufficiently large (say n > 20) and p not too close to zero or 1 (say 0.05 To find the binomial probabilities, this can be used as follows: If X ~ binomial (n,p) where n > 20 and 0.05 So is approximately N(0,1). R programming will be used for calculating probabilities associated with the binomial, Poisson, and normal distributions. Using R code, it will enable me to test the input and model the output in terms of graph. The system requirement for R is to be provided an operating system platform to be able to perform any calculation. Firstly, we are going to proceed by considering the conditions under which the discrete distribution inclines towards a normal distribution. Generating a set of the discrete distribution so that it inclines towards a bell shape. Or simply using R by just specifying the size needed. And lastly compare the generated distribution with the target normal distribution Normal approximation of binomial probabilities Let X ~ BINOM(100, 0.4). Using R to compute Q = P(35 X Ã¢â° ¤ 45) = P(35.5 X Ã¢â° ¤ 45.5): > diff(pbinom(c(45,35), 100, .4))  -0.6894402 Whether it is for theoretical or practical purposes, Using Central Limit Theorem is more convenient to approximate the binomial probabilities. When n is large and (np/q, nq/p) > 3, where q = 1 Ã¢â¬â p The CLT states that, for situations where n is large, Y ~ BINOM(n, p) is approximately NORM(Ã ¼ = np, ÃÆ' = [np(1 Ã¢â¬â p)]1/2). Hence, using the first expression Q = P(35 X Ã¢â° ¤ 45) The approximation results as follows: l Ã ¦(1.0206) Ã¢â¬â Ã ¦(Ã¢â¬â1.0206) = 0.6926 Correction for continuity adjustment will be used in order for a continuous distribution to approximate a discrete. Recall that a random variable can take all real values within a range or interval while a discrete random variable can take on only specified values. Thus, using the normal distribution to approximate the binomial, more precise approximations of the probabilities are obtained. After applying the continuity correction to Q = P(35.5 X Ã¢â° ¤ 45.5), it results to: Ã ¦(1.1227) Ã¢â¬â Ã ¦(Ã¢â¬â0.91856) = 0.6900 We can verify the calculation using R, > pnorm(c(1.1227))-pnorm(c(-0.91856))  0.6900547 Below an alternate R code is used to plot and illustrate the normal approximation to binomial. Let X ~ BINOM(100, l4) and P(35 45) > pbinom(45, 100, .4) pbinom(35, 100, .4)  0.6894402 # Normal approximation > pnorm(5/sqrt(24)) pnorm(-5/sqrt(24))  0.6925658 # Applying Continuity Correction > pnorm(5.5/sqrt(24)) pnorm(-4.5/sqrt(24))  0.6900506 x1=36:45 x2= c(25:35, 46:55) x1x2= seq(25, 55, by=.01) plot(x1x2, dnorm(x1x2, 40, sqrt(24)), type=l, xlab=x, ylab=Binomial Probability) lines(x2, dbinom(x2, 100, .4), type=h, col=2) lines(x1, dbinom(x1, 100, .4), type=h, lwd=2) Poisson approximation of binomial probabilities For situations in which p is very small with large n, the Poisson distribution can be used as an approximation to the binomial distribution. The larger the n and the smaller the p, the better is the approximation. The following formula for the Poisson model is used to approximate the binomial probabilities: A Poisson approximation can be used when n is large (n>50) and p is small (p Then X~Po(np) approximately. AN EXAMPLE The probability of a person will develop an infection even after taking a vaccine that was supposed to prevent the infection is 0.03. In a simple random sample of 200 people in a community who get vaccinated, what is the probability that six or fewer person will be infected? Solution: Let X be the random variable of the number of people being infected. X follows a binomial probability distribution with n=200 and p= 0.03. The probability of having six or less people getting infected is P (X Ã¢â° ¤ 6 ) = The probability is 0.6063. Calculation can be verified using R as > sum(dbinom(0:6, 200, 0.03))  0.6063152 Or otherwise, > pbinom(6, 200, .03)  0.6063152 In order to avoid such tedious calculation by hand, Poisson distribution or a normal distribution can be used to approximate the binomial probability. Poisson approximation to the binomial distribution To use Poisson distribution as an approximation to the binomial probabilities, we can consider that the random variable X follows a Poisson distribution with rate Ã »=np= (200) (0.03) = 6. Now, we can calculate the probability of having six or fewer infections as P (X Ã¢â° ¤ 6) = The results turns out to be similar as the one that has been obtained using the binomial distribution. Calculation can be verified using R, > ppois(6, lambda = 6)  0.6063028 It can be clearly seen that the Poisson approximation is very close to the exact probability. The same probability can be calculated using the normal approximation. Since binomial distribution is for a discrete random variable and normal distribution for continuous, continuity correction is needed when using a normal distribution as an approximation to a discrete distribution. For large n with np>5 and nq>5, a binomial random variable X with XÃ¢Ë ¼Bin(n,p) can be approximated by a normal distribution with mean = np and variance = npq. i.e. XÃ¢Ë ¼N(6,5.82). The probability that there will be six or fewer cases of these incidences: P (XÃ¢â° ¤6) = P (z Ã¢â° ¤ ) As it was mentioned earlier, correction for continuity adjustment is needed. So, the above expression become P (XÃ¢â° ¤6) = P (z Ã¢â° ¤ ) = P (z Ã¢â° ¤ ) = P (z Ã¢â° ¤ ) Using R, the probability which is 0.5821 can be obtained: > pnorm(0.2072)  0.5820732 It can be noted that the approximation used is close to the exact probability 0.6063. However, the Poisson distribution gives better approximation. But for larger sample sizes, where n is closer to 300, the normal approximation is as good as the Poisson approximation. The normal approximation to the Poisson distribution The normal distribution can also be used as an approximation to the Poisson distribution whenever the parameter Ã » is large When Ã » is large (say Ã »>15), the normal distribution can be used as an approximation where X~N(Ã », Ã ») Here also a continuity correction is needed, since a continuous distribution is used to approximate a discrete one. Example A radioactive disintegration gives counts that follow a Poisson distribution with a mean count of 25 per second. Find probability that in a one-second interval the count is between 23 and 27 inclusive. Solution: Let X be the radioactive count in one-second interval, X~Po(25) Using normal approximation, X~N(25,25) P(23Ã¢â° ¤xÃ¢â° ¤27) =P(22.5 =P ( ) =P (-0.5 =0.383 (3 d.p) Using R: > pnorm(c(0.5))-pnorm(c(-0.5))  0.3829249 In this study it has been concluded that when using the normal distribution to approximate the binomial distribution, a more accurate approximations was obtained. Moreover, it turns out that as n gets larger, the Binomial distribution looks increasingly like the Normal distribution. The normal approximation to the binomial distribution is, in fact, a special case of a more general phenomenon. The importance of employing a correction for continuity adjustment has also been investigated. It has also been viewed that using R programming, more accurate outcome of the distribution are obtained. Furthermore a number of examples has also been analyzed in order to have a better perspective on the normal approximation. Using normal distribution as an approximation can be useful, however if these conditions are not met then the approximation may not be that good in estimating the probabilities.
Use of Violence as the Main Reason for Mussolini's Consolidation of Power from 1922-1928 Introduction Ã · Several reasons why Mussolini was able to consolidate his power between 1922 and 1928, such as Mussolini?s actions and strategy, co-operation from the elite and the failure of his opposition. Ã · However, I believe the most significant reason was the use of violence. Paragraph 1: Use of Violence Ã · July 1923: The Chamber, surrounded by Blackshirts, passed the Acerbo Law. This said that the party gaining the most votes in an election, provided that they obtained at least 25% of the votes, would take two-thirds of the seats. Ã · April 1924: Militia violence during the election. 1 Socialist candidate killed; meetings were stopped; hostile voters were intimidated and the Blackshirts stood next to the poling stations to frighten people into voting for the Fascists. Some Fascist voters were allowed to vote many times each. The ras had a virtually free hand in intimidating opponents in the small towns in the provin...
Monday, August 19, 2019
Sir Philip Sidney wrote in the Defense of Poesy that Ã¢â¬Å"only the poet, disdaining to be tied to any such subjection, lifted up with the vigor of his own invention, doth grow in effect another nature, in making things either better than nature bringeth forth, or quite anew, forms such as never were in natureÃ¢â¬ (Sidney, bartleby.com). While history describes the actual and philosophy explores the abstract, only poetry is capable of weaving the two concepts together. Reading a nationÃ¢â¬â¢s history enlightens an individual to the significant events of a countryÃ¢â¬â¢s past, but it cannot reveal the immaterial spirit of an era or people. Likewise, it is necessary to look at poetry to perceive the void left vacant by historyÃ¢â¬â¢s restriction. There have been several poets throughout history who have bridged this gap and captured their nationÃ¢â¬â¢s essence. Poets such as Whitman, Goethe, and Yeats communed directly with the soul of their nations and deservedly are recog nized as national poets. During the post-World War II era, both Robert Lowell and Seamus Heaney emerged as the pre-eminent poets of their day who were thrust into the public forum. The poets are well-known, acquiring Pulitzer and Nobel prizes amongst other accomplishments, and thus are worth analyzing as potential national poets. Historically a national poet fulfills the following criteria: an interest in creating poetry for the public sphere, a focus on the socio-political intricacies of their respective state, and an embodiment and understanding of the collective conscious of their people. Although Robert Lowell and Seamus Heaney were both well known politically concerned, dedicated, celebrated, and criticized poets, through an analysis of their work using the aforementioned criteria, only... ...of Ireland today . Both Robert Lowell and Seamus Heaney are poets that have significantly affected both their culture and poetry through their compositions of verse. However, through an analysis of the two writers on the basis of their intention, focus on socio-political concerns, and ability to connect to their national conscious, Heaney emerges as a true national poet, while Robert Lowell is better understood as a generational poet. Ultimately as the world becomes increasingly globalized and homogeneity is displaced by multi-culturalism, the distinction of the national poet will fade. While the change is inevitable, a reading of either Seamus Heaney or Robert Lowell affords an incomparable glimpse into the Irish experience or an American perspective during the post-war era and thus is necessary for truly understanding those nationÃ¢â¬â¢s histories.
Sunday, August 18, 2019
The Tragic and Pitiful King Lear The general plot of King Lear revolves mainly around the conflict between the King and his daughters, although there is a definite and distinct sub-plot dealing with the plight and tragedy of Gloucester as well. One of the main themes that Shakespeare chooses to focus on in King Lear is the dysfunctional nature of not only the royal family and Gloucester, but the heartache and emotional strain that goes along with being a parent and having to make a decision that will divide your children. This play focuses on not only the after effects of this decision, but the way in which it affects the King, his children and his subjects as well. A strong case can be made for King Lear as Shakespeare's most tragic effort of his career. The fact that nearly the entire cast of this play either is murdered or dies with little to no redemption makes the strongest case for this. In nearly every other Shakespearian work, save perhaps Othello, at least some of the characters enjoy a bit of redemption or salvation with the resolution of the conflict. King Lear's characters are privy to neither of these. The bitterness, sadness, and reality of the human psyche that is contained throughout this work demonstrate its tragic nature best, however. The tie emotionally and physically between a father and a daughter (or son, in relation to the Gloucester/Edmund/Edgar plot) is something entirely different than husband-wife or boyfriend-girlfriend in many of Shakespeares other plays. In the very beginning of the play, when Lear is foolishly dividing up his kingdom between his three daughters, and after he has asked Cordelia's two older sisters what they "think" of him, he turns to her and asks the same question. Her reply shows the true nature of her character, as she says, "Unhappy that I am, I cannot heave my heart into my mouth. I love Your Majesty according to my bond, no more, nor less." (1.1, ll. 91-93) His words could almost be considered threatening by declaring that her unwillingness to express her love in words might, "mar her fortunes." We are privy to definitive foreshadowing with Cordelia's reply of, "Good my lord, you have begot me, bred me, loved me. I return those duties back to you as are right fi t, obey you, love you, and most honor you.
Saturday, August 17, 2019
Spiritual Seminary, which trained him to be a priest. While he was there, he s secretly became infatuated with reading the work of Karl Marx, Ã¢â¬Å"Communist Manifesto. Ã¢â¬ Josef interest steadily increased, and in 1 899 he claimed he was expelled from the Seminary for Mar exist Propaganda. After Stalin left the school, he joined the militant Bolshevik wing of the Marxism t Social Democratic movement, which was led by Vladimir Lenin. Stalin became an UN detergent political revolutionary who took part in strikes, propaganda distribution, bank heists, and ordered assassinations.He was arrested multiple times and was ultimately ex lied to, and imprisoned in, Siberia. He escaped often times, and was moved up in the rank s of the Bolsheviks. Josef married his first wife, Catering Spavined, in 1906. She died of typhus in 1907, shortly after their son, Yak, was born. Yak died in 1943 as a prisoner of G errand In World War II. Stalin's second wife, Endeared Alluvial, was a daughter of a non there Russian Revolutionary with whom he had several children. This marriage did not last Eng though, ad Endeared committed suicide a few years later.In 1 912 Vladimir Lenin, who was exiled in Switzerland, appointed Stalin to seer eve on the first Central Committee of the Bolshevik Party. The Bolsheviks seized Russ IA in 1917 and was made the Soviet Union in 1922. Lenin was the first leader of the Soviets, a ND by this point Stalin became secretary general of the Central Committee of the Communist Party, with which he gained political support. In 1924, Lenin died and Stalin won a power struggle against Nikolas Buchanan, Level Kinsmen, Alexei Rooky, Mikhail Tomboy, Leon Trotsky, a ND Gregory Genevieve.By the late 1 sass, Stalin was in control of the Communist Party and was the dictator of the Soviet Union. The Soviet Union underwent several longtime plans launched by Stalin to tar misinform it from a overstocking country to an industrial giant. He insisted on a govern interconnec ted economy and on the government taking control farms. Citizens who refuse d to comply with Josephs orders were brutally murdered or exiled. Millions of people died of FAA mine because of the agriculture control. Stalin ruled by striking terror in citizens and possible opponents.He set up a s secret police and encouraged citizens to spy on one another in order to eliminate an Y possible uprising or opposition. Millions Of people were forced into labor or killed if Joss pep considered them a threat. Joseph essentially built a cult around himself by renaming cite s in his honor, having textbooks rewritten to promote him, and tying himself into the Soviet's culture. In 1 939, Joseph Stalin and Doll Hitler signed a nonaggression pact. Stalin the annexed many countries, including Poland, Romania, Estonia, Latvia, Finland and Lithuania.Stalin was warned by America, Britain, and the KGB about a possible break of the Insensitive pact, but chose to ignore the advice. In 1 941, the Nazis inv aded the USSR and approached the capital, Moscow. Stalin ordered any supplies that could be beneficial to the e enemy to be destroyed. In 1 942, the Soviet Army defeated the Germans at the Battle Of SST Leningrad and drove them out of Russia. After this, Stalin took part in conferences with the A Lies. Although Stalin was a loyal ally in WI, he did not abandon the idea of a Com monist empire. Joseph Stalin Spiritual Seminary, which trained him to be a priest. While he was there, he s secretly became infatuated with reading the work of Karl Marx, Ã¢â¬Å"Communist Manifesto. Ã¢â¬ Josef interest steadily increased, and in 1 899 he claimed he was expelled from the Seminary for Mar exist Propaganda. After Stalin left the school, he joined the militant Bolshevik wing of the Marxism t Social Democratic movement, which was led by Vladimir Lenin. Stalin became an UN detergent political revolutionary who took part in strikes, propaganda distribution, bank heists, and ordered assassinations.He was arrested multiple times and was ultimately ex lied to, and imprisoned in, Siberia. He escaped often times, and was moved up in the rank s of the Bolsheviks. Josef married his first wife, Catering Spavined, in 1906. She died of typhus in 1907, shortly after their son, Yak, was born. Yak died in 1943 as a prisoner of G errand In World War II. Stalin's second wife, Endeared Alluvial, was a daughter of a non there Russian Revolutionary with whom he had several children. This marriage did not last Eng though, ad Endeared committed suicide a few years later.In 1 912 Vladimir Lenin, who was exiled in Switzerland, appointed Stalin to seer eve on the first Central Committee of the Bolshevik Party. The Bolsheviks seized Russ IA in 1917 and was made the Soviet Union in 1922. Lenin was the first leader of the Soviets, a ND by this point Stalin became secretary general of the Central Committee of the Communist Party, with which he gained political support. In 1924, Lenin died and Stalin won a power struggle against Nikolas Buchanan, Level Kinsmen, Alexei Rooky, Mikhail Tomboy, Leon Trotsky, a ND Gregory Genevieve.By the late 1 sass, Stalin was in control of the Communist Party and was the dictator of the Soviet Union. The Soviet Union underwent several longtime plans launched by Stalin to tar misinform it from a overstocking country to an industrial giant. He insisted on a govern interconnec ted economy and on the government taking control farms. Citizens who refuse d to comply with Josephs orders were brutally murdered or exiled. Millions of people died of FAA mine because of the agriculture control. Stalin ruled by striking terror in citizens and possible opponents.He set up a s secret police and encouraged citizens to spy on one another in order to eliminate an Y possible uprising or opposition. Millions Of people were forced into labor or killed if Joss pep considered them a threat. Joseph essentially built a cult around himself by renaming cite s in his honor, having textbooks rewritten to promote him, and tying himself into the Soviet's culture. In 1 939, Joseph Stalin and Doll Hitler signed a nonaggression pact. Stalin the annexed many countries, including Poland, Romania, Estonia, Latvia, Finland and Lithuania.Stalin was warned by America, Britain, and the KGB about a possible break of the Insensitive pact, but chose to ignore the advice. In 1 941, the Nazis inv aded the USSR and approached the capital, Moscow. Stalin ordered any supplies that could be beneficial to the e enemy to be destroyed. In 1 942, the Soviet Army defeated the Germans at the Battle Of SST Leningrad and drove them out of Russia. After this, Stalin took part in conferences with the A Lies. Although Stalin was a loyal ally in WI, he did not abandon the idea of a Com monist empire.
Friday, August 16, 2019
Learning outcome 1.1 Describe the expected pattern of children and young peopleÃ¢â¬â¢s development from birth to 19 years, to include: Ã ·Physical development Ã ·Communication and intellectual development Ã ·Social, emotional and behavioural development Birth to 3 years The expected pattern starts at 0-3 years where a child is expected to develop the most. They have little control over their bodies at 0-1 years and are dependent on their natural instincts eg: sucking, grasping. Newborn New Born babies use their senses from the moment they are born, they can already recognise their mothers voice and smell and they have natural reflexes for example the Walking and standing reflex which occurs when babies are held upright with their feet on a firm surface, they usually make stepping movements. Physical Development Swallowing and sucking reflexes Ã¢â¬â These ensure that the baby can feed and swallow milk Rooting reflex Ã¢â¬â The baby will move its head to look for a nipple or teat. Grasp reflex Ã¢â¬â The baby will automatically put her fingers around an object that has touched the palm of her hand. Startle reflex Ã¢â¬â When babies hear a sudden sound or bright light, they will react by moving their arms outwards and clenching their fists Walking and standing reflex Ã¢â¬â When babies are held upright with their feet on a firm surface, they usually make stepping movements Falling reflex Ã¢â¬â This is known as the Moro reflex. Babies will stretch out their arms suddenly and then clasp inwards in any situations in which they feel that they are falling. Communication and Intellectual development Babies at birth cry in order to communicate their needs, they may cry when they are hungry, in pain, need feeding, changing or just cuddling. They also start to look around and react to sounds. Social, Emotional and Behavioural Development Babies and their primary carers, usually their mothers, begin to develop a strong, close bond from very early on. You might see that the baby at times stares at the mother and the mother is very aware of her baby. One month In a short month, babies have changed already. They might appear less curled up and more relaxed. Babies at one month have usually started to settle into a sleeping pattern. They sleep quite a lot of the time, but will gradually start to spend longer times awake. They cry to communicate their needs and their parents may be starting to understand the different types of cries. Babies too are learning about their parents or carers. They may stop crying when they hear soothing voices. They also try hard to focus on the face of whoever is holding them. Physical development Reflexes are not as strong although the baby will be growing stronger and may be able to lift their heads for a short while, whilst held upright. Babies can see more clearly than at birth. He enjoys looking at bold patterns and human faces, and can track an object with his eyes He begins to uncurl his hands, and may wave his arms and kick when excited. Communication and intellectual development At one month babies may stop crying because they hear a familiar voice, they are also becoming more expressive and may start to coo and gurgle when they see you. Babies may mimic the mouth movements and facial expressions of adults. Social, emotional and behavioural development Babies may stop crying as they are picked up, but start crying when they are put down. Babies will start to relax during bath time or when their nappies are changed. Three to six months Babies in three months have grown in height and weight. They are wearing new sets of clothes and have changed in many ways. Some babies have learned the difference between day and night and are able to sleep through the night, which is a great help to parents. Babies are also crying less and most parents are getting more familiar with what their cries mean. They may start to sleep a little less and are far more alert Babies at six months have learnt many skills. They are very alert and turn their heads to see what is happening. They enjoy playing and show it by smiling and squealing with delight. They are able to focus on an object and explore it if it seems interesting. Babies also start to show us that they understand a little of what we are saying and try to communicate with us. Physical Development Babies will start to lift and turn their heads, using their arms to support their upper body when lying on their stomach. Babies will start to take an Interest in playing with fingers and opening and closing hands. Exploring toys and objects in the mouth as well as with fingers Babies will be able to Sit up with support and later, without support They will start Rolling over from back to front They will stretch their legs out and kick when lying on stomach or back Pushes down on legs when feet are placed on a firm surface# Babies will bring their hands together intentionally and soon after will try to bat at objects or grasp things Communication and intellectual development Babies may get excitement when it is time to be fed Babies will start to notice mobiles and objects around them They show Enjoyment when simple games such as pat-a-cake are repeated Curiosity as babies look to see what is happening around them Babies will begin Babbling, laughing and squealing and imitate some sounds They will respond to their name Follows moving objects with eyes Watches faces closely and recognizes familiar objects and people at a distance Starts using hands and eyes in coordination Babies will start to respond to music, turn head toward sound and smiles at the sound of your voice Social, emotional and behavioural development Babies will start to enjoy Bath time They will smile back when they see a smiling face. Babies are learning to recognize familiar faces and will display smiles of delight when they are playing with their primary carers. They will lift their arms up to show a parent that they want to be picked up. They enjoy playing with others and may cry when playing stops Become more expressive and communicates more with face and body Babies will be drawn to their image in mirrors Learn how to comfort themselves Nine Months BabiesÃ¢â¬â¢ physical development is now very noticeable. Many babies will be crawling or finding ways of being mobile. They are also able to sit up without any support. These movements mean that babies can explore more and also spend a little time sitting and playing. When they are mobile they can move quite fast, so this is a period in which adults really need to think about safety. As well as large movements, babies are also picking up objects and handling them, and becoming more skilled at touching things. Things still get popped into the mouth, so, again, adults need to be aware of what is around. BabiesÃ¢â¬â¢ language is also coming along. Babbling has become more tuneful and longer strings of sound are put together. Babies are also learning what some key words mean. They may start to get excited when they hear words such as drink or dinner. Babies are also starting to show us who they enjoy being with and may start to cry when they are being left with a stranger. Physical development Babies will now sit up without any support They will practice using fingers to feed Crawls forward on belly and rolls over Pulls himself up to stand May walk two or three steps without support and Walk holding on to furniture Takes objects out of containers Pokes with index finger Communication and intellectual development Tuneful strings of babbling Exploring objects using hands and also mouth Responds to Ã¢â¬Å"noÃ¢â¬ although may not have full understanding of meaning Imitate sounds and may say Ã¢â¬Å"mamaÃ¢â¬ and Ã¢â¬Å"dadaÃ¢â¬ Begins to use objects correctly: drinks from cups, listens in a phone Explores object in different ways: banging, shaking, throwing, etc. Social, emotional and behavioural development Baby appears shy or anxious with strangers and will try to stay nearby parents or carer Babies may cry when caregiver leaves the room Enjoys imitation and repeats sounds or gestures Tests parental responses to her behaviour Twelve to eighteen months The first birthday of a child is for many families a special event and a cause of celebration. This in part dates back to times when not all babies survived their first year. By twelve months the baby has come a long way inÃ development, they are now more mobile and are able to crawl very quickly and may be on the verge of walking. As well as gaining mobility, babies are also becoming quite skilled at using their hands. Objects are touched, moved and organised and they enjoy putting things in and out of containers, or dropping things and looking to see what happens to them. A strong feature of their play is the way in which they enjoy doing something over and over again. At one year, babies are now able to sit up and feed themselves using their fingers. Most one year olds know what they do and donÃ¢â¬â¢t like. Food that they enjoy gets eaten, while food that they are not hungry for may be thrown onto the floor. Babies will now be aware of who their parents and main carers are. They are keen to stay near their parents and carers and will stop playing to see what they are doing. Babies are also able to understand more of what is happening around them. They not only notice what other people are doing, but understand more and more of what is being said. Long strings of babbling are still the way in which babies try to communicate, but hidden in the babbling are the beginning of babiesÃ¢â¬â¢ first words. Parents and carers usually notice these from around 13 months. Physical Development Standing up and holding onto furniture alone Enjoys picking up and handling small objects Crawls confidently and quickly Likes to push, pull, and drop things Will pull off hat, socks, and mittens Is able to turn pages in a book and stack 2 building blocks Enjoys carrying small objects while walking, often one in each hand Holds crayon and scribbles, but with little control Waves bye-bye and claps hands Enjoys holding spoon when eating, but experiences difficulty in getting spoon into mouth Rolls a ball to adult on request Walking up and down stairs with adult help Sitting and pushing off with legs on sit-and-ride toys. Able to feed self with spoon Communication and intellectual development Waving bye-bye Will point fingers at objects to draw an adultÃ¢â¬â¢s attention to them Tuneful babbling that sounds like talking progressing to speak 8 -20 words you can understand Looks at person talking to him or her Says Ã¢â¬Å"HiÃ¢â¬ or Ã¢â¬Å"ByeÃ¢â¬ if reminded Uses expressions like Ã¢â¬Å"Oh-ohÃ¢â¬ Plays peek-a-boo Understands and follows simple one-step directions Likes to take things apart Social, emotional and behavioural development Repetitive play as the baby enjoys doing something over and over again. Becomes upset when separated from or cannot see their parent or carer Likes to hand objects to others Play independently on floor with toys Recognizes self in mirror or pictures Imitates others especially by coughing, sneezing, or making animal sounds Signs of temper and frustration Eagerness for independence Ã¢â¬â trying to feed themselves with a spoon Will show interest in other children and what they are doing Children at two years old By two years old, children are very much showing their individuality. They know what they want to do, touch and hold. They can now move confidently and are enjoying walking, being able to pick up things and playing with them. They enjoy doing things for themselves and are keen to do more Ã¢â¬â and get frustrated when they are not able to. Sometimes this is because adults realise that what they want is dangerous, while at other times it is because their level of skill is not yet matching what they want to do. Their frustration can lead to temper tantrums and emotional outbursts. This is often a toddlerÃ¢â¬â¢s way of communication how they are feeling and is why thisÃ period is sometimes known as the Ã¢â¬Ëterrible twosÃ¢â¬â¢. While toddlers do get frustrated and angry, they are also emotional in other ways. They smile, laugh and squeal with enjoyment. They notice other children and enjoy being near them, even though they may not actively play together. Favourite toys and games are played over and over again. Children are also starting to enjoy pretend play. Two-year-olds are often starting to chat aloud. They are likely to have around two hundred words, pointing out objects and naming them.
Thursday, August 15, 2019
Population Growth You and me, we arenÃ¢â¬â¢t that different. But when we compare ourselves to the 6. 2 billion people in this world or even the 287. 4 million in the United States, we start to become really different. Take all of the high-rises and stack them up and I bet we could go to the moon. Now you tell me that is not over-population. This world is growing with people everyday and it doesnÃ¢â¬â¢t stop. Because of the population and its growth our resources are becoming limited. Our garbage production on this planet is atrocious! It all needs to stop right now.If we stop populating this world with more people we would become better off later on. Like I said our natural resources are limited and everyday a lot of them are getting thrown in the trash. These are all things that have to do with population. Everyday we are changing the environment around us, whether it is building roads, houses or any other thing in that matter. In doing so we are taking up space on Earth. Which means that we are running out of room to grow. And pretty soon we will have no room to grow on this planet. In Bangladesh there are 2,405 people per square mile.Hong Kong is virtually made of high-rises that 6. 8 million people live in. The Chinese region of Macaa is 57,369 people per square mile. These numbers are all because we are running out of room to grow, thus we are turning to high-rises. Brazil has a population of 176. 5 million people and eight out of ten people live in towns or cities and it grows 1. 3% each year. 1. 3% is what the worldÃ¢â¬â¢s average growth rate is. And you think that is bad, look at Africa, which has a growth rate of 2. 4% and of course is the highest in the world.Tokyo, Japan, home of 34 million Japanese, is the largest city in the world. Mexico City, Mexico has 22. 4 million el locos living in it. New York, New York, has 21. 8 million people in its borders and is the 4th largest city. Sao Paulo, Brazil, has 20 million people that I get to go meet a nd it is the 5th largest city. The 8th largest city is Los Angeles, California that is home to 17. 8 million Americans. The 19th largest city is Rio de Janeiro, which is home to 12 million Brazilians who I also get to meet. Number 26 is Chicago, Illinois, home to 9. 7 million Americans.Like I said, this world is growing. In 15,000 BC, 5 million people started hunting and gathering food for themselves. In 5,000 BC there were 66 million people in the world and they could finally settle in one place and farm. And now look at this world! The numbers of humans has never been on the downfall for very long. But the worldÃ¢â¬â¢s growth rate has been falling at more or less . 1% annually. As you recall, the average growth rate is 1. 3%. In about 40 years from now, more than 50 countries will experience negative growth with a world growth rate at about 0. 34% per year.Like IÃ¢â¬â¢ve said, there are some natural resources that are running out. 70% of the Earth is covered in water. Only 25% of water supplies are clean and healthy in Ethiopia. 69% of water we use is for farming. Since 10,000 BC, humans have destroyed half of our worldÃ¢â¬â¢s forest. Lets face it; mineral resources are finite and should be recycled for future generations. For example, the 287. 4 million Americans use ten times the amount of oil Africa does with 840 million people. Although this is not a renewable resource, it is a natural one we are going to run out of real soon.As common sense kicks in, we realize that the more people there are the more oil we use. Now you can take that fact and apply it to ANY resource. To set it straight, 2,000 years ago there were 250 million people in the world. 1700. 679 million people 1900. 1. 63 billion people 1920. 1. 96 billion people 1950. 2. 52 billion people 1990. 5. 29 billion people in the world. In 1999 the world hit 6 billion people. Today there is about 6. 3 billion and it is growing every day. This is not a good thing. Our environment is being stret ched to its limits and it has to stop. We need to stop it by stopping population growth.